Nifty Outlook 01-June-2009

For Monday Trading

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at retracement level of 4395 with stoploss at 4370 for targets 4440, 4480, 4510.

Bear Level

Short nifty future at 4515 with stoploss at 4535 for targets 4480, 4440, 4395.

Looking Good : APIL

After closing above a series of resistances, APIL looks good for a breakout on monday. For monday trading, buy APIL at retracement level of 466 with 453 as stoploss for targets 488, 500, 520.

Weekend analysis of nifty and index biggies and a fibonacci confluence

Last week had plenty for both bulls and bears.

All the index biggies traded as per levels mentioned in Jerry's weekly analysis of index biggies .

In the end bulls were clear winners with a 400 point rally in nifty from the low of 4090. The week ahead should be really interesting because there is a fibonacci time cluster confluence happening on june 4 - june 8. As traders, we should expect change of trend in this time period.


NIFTY

For the week ahead, nifty support levels are placed at 4350 and 4250 levels while resitances are placed at 4570 and 4650 repectively.

RELIANCE

Sultan of stocks closed near a high resistance zone with reistances coming at 2340 and 2390. Weekly supports for reliance exists at 2230 and 2180 levels.

SBIN

King of banks had a most volatile week with a journey from weekly close to support level and back to resistance levels. In the week ahead, SBI will have huge resistance at 1900 and 1970 levels while support levels are placed at 1780 and 1700 levels.

ONGC

In the week ahead, ONGC could be the deal breaker. ONGC will run into huge resistance at 1250, 1320 levels. Inability to sustain above first resitance level will drag the stock down to 1100 and 900 levels.

Nifty outlook 29-May-2009

Flashback


Nifty opened near yesterday's close and zoomed to short level, fell duly to first target and then moved up and stayed in a narrow range. As a result, nifty has moved into a high resistance area.


Star of the day was HDIL who from the short level fell to almost to target 1.


A single lot of HDIL should have given readers well over 50,000 rupees.





For Friday trading





Bear Level


Short nifty future around 4370 with stoploss at 4388 for targets 4320, 4290, 4260


Bull Level


Nifty future crossing 4388 buy on retracment to 4375 with 4355 as stoploss for targets 4400, 4420, 4450.





Trouble Series : Tata motors

Tata motors is unable to pierce through huge resistance at 349.








For thursday trading


Short tata motors around 343 with stoploss at 350 for targets 322, 305, 290.


Note that because the future is in a huge discount, i have given spot levels. Futures traders should take confluence from spot levels to do this trade.

Nifty Outlook 28-may-2009

Tomorrow is expiry day and as usual expected to be very volatile.

Bear Level

Short nifty future around 4330 with stoploss at 4350 for targets 4295, 4265, 4245

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at retracment level of 4240 with stoploss at 4220 for targets 4285, 4315, 4330.

Being expiry day there are no stock recommendations.
However, yesterday's levels of HDIL shall be valid for tomorrow also.

Special Post- Probably the best one so far

An hour into market close, i have 17 emails in my inbox from readers congratulating me on reliance infra. A couple of readers have actually stated how much they made in relinfra and it is mind boggling to say the least. To them the jewel of adag literally became a jewel.
Thank you to all those took the time out send me an email and to those who made full use of relinfra, just keep printing !!!!!!

Nifty Outlook 27-May-2009

Flashback

Adlabs rocketed its way to 351 before triggering stoploss of 324. Once it triggered stoploss there was a violent fall to 309.

Reliance Infra moved to first target.

For wednesday trading

Bear Level

Short nifty future on retracement to 4207 with stoploss at 4253 for targets 4130, 4094, 4055.

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at 4055 with stoploss of 4025 for targets 4094, 4130, 4180.

Trouble Series is back - HDIL

HDIL has been quite the star of this rally with a more than 300% rally. However from charts it looks as though time has come for hdil to take a breather.

For wednesday trading short HDIL on retracement at 289 with stoploss at 301 for targets

265, 253, 247.

Nifty Outlook 26-May-2009

Reflecting on a rangebound monday

Nifty traded in a narrow range of 70 points. Readers who followed the blog would have made 65 out of that 70 points as nifty hit entry of long and zoomed to first target.

Readers who took long position on retracement in adlabs can hold onto the same with stoploss and targets remaining the same.

For tuesday trading

Bull Level

Buy nifty future crossing 4275 on retracment to 4260 with stoploss at 4240 for targets 4295, 4325, 4370.

Bear Level

If stoploss of long position as mentioned above is hit short on retracement to 4255 with 4275 as stoploss for targets 4205, 4180, 4165.

Positional Buy : Reliance Infra (Jewel of ADAG)

Relinfra has made a classical bullish pattern on charts.





For tuesday trading
Buy RELINFRA at retracement to 1118 with stoploss at 1088 for targets 1165, 1195, 1240.

Nifty outlook 25-May-2009

Reflecting about a playful friday

SunTV did not really shine as expected. Readers of the blog would have made a small loss in the trade. However readers who shorted nifty future as per levels given would have printed out the almighty dollar as nifty crashed from short level to almost 3rd target.


For monday trading

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at retracement level of 4210 with stoploss at 4192 for targets 4275, 4300, 4331.

Bear Level

1) In the scenario of nifty future breaking 4192, short nifty future at retracment to 4210 with 4225 as stoploss for targets 4165, 4140, 4125.

2) Short nifty future when it trades at 3rd target of long level of 4331. Instead of shorting in future buy 4000 june month put at around 70 rs with stoploss at 56 rs for targets 95, 112, 130.

If this trade becomes deep in the money, one can carry the position for targets 180 ,195.

Impending Breakout - ADLABS




Adlabs is a at a critical level. On monday crossing 345, buy adlabs on retracement to 334 with stoploss at 322 for targets 367, 385. It is essential that adlabs crosses 345 in futures before this trade is taken.

Note:

I have tried to analyse RIL, SBI and ONGC on a weekly basis here

Weekend Analysis of Index biggies

Sultan of Stocks - RIL

RIL found it impossible to penetrate and trade above 61.8 expansion level last week. This week, RIL will run into huge resitances at 2315 and 2375. Unable to trade above the first resistance level will be first sign of weakness in RIL and it can correct to weekly support levels at 2000 and 1950.

King of Banks - SBI

SBI was the strongest index stock last week retaining most of the gains it made on monday. For this week resistances for SBI are placed at 1875 and 1950 while supports are placed at 1590 and 1520.

Oil Barron - ONGC

ONGC was quite the star last week. In doing so, ONGC has moved to 61.8 retracement of the fall from its all time high and therefore at huge resitance levels. This week ONGC will have huge resitances at 1130 and 1180 levels. If ONGC is unable to cross first resitance level, it can easily correct to support levels of 980 and 920.

Nifty Outlook 22-May-2009

Flashback:


Nify triggered short level and went to target1 while divis was up one way. Readers who went long near long level would have made good profit.





Bear Level


Short nifty futre at retracement level of 4255 with stoploss at 4285 for targets 4207, 4180, 4155.





Bull Level


Buy nifty future crossing 4290 on retracement level at 4275 with stoploss for 4250 for targets


4325, 4355, 4375.





Looking Good : SUNTV

SUNTV has taken support at lower channel and looks good to move to higher levels.
For friday trading, buy suntv at around 265 with 256 as stoploss for targets 280, 304, 314.
As the stock may be influenced by today's political scene, readers should do the trade in spot in low quantities to minimize risk.

NIFTY OUTLOOK 21-MAY-2009

Flashback

Star of day was tatamotors which followed the levels mentioned yesterday pretty much like a lost traveler following a compass. Even one lot futures contract should have fetched 75,000 Rs intraday for readers of the blog.

Bull Level

Buy nifty future crossing 4350 at retracement level of 4335 with stoploss at 4315 for targets 4380, 4420, 4445

Bear Level

Sell nifty future on break of 4230 at retracement level of 4255 with stoploss of 4287 for targets 4215, 4190, 4170

Looking good - DIVIS LAB

Divis lab has closed above a series of high resistance levels in a powerful upmove today. We can expect some follow up action in divis tomorrow.

1) Buy Divis on retracement level of 1082 with stoploss at 1050 for targets 1145, 1165, 1190

2) Buy Divis crossing 1145 at retracement level of 1125 with stoploss at 1100 for targets 1165, 1190, 1235

Note:
Divis is highly volatile stock with wild moves. Inorder to reduce risk, the trade should be done in spot in low quantities by the risk averse reader.

NIfty outlook 20-may-2009

Nifty like a baby learning to walk, tried to find a fair value. As a result, day traders had a field day playing along both sides.

Tomorrow we could witness a range contraction in the range of 4280 - 4530.

In such a case,one could use a simple stochastics crossover in 30 minute chart for trading nifty tomorrow.

Looking Good - Tata Motors

Tata motors, although closed in the minus, took support at the lower end of the channel (see chart).

For wednesday trading

1) In case of gap down buy tatamotors at 293 with stoploss at 282 for targets 319, 335, 360

2) Buy Tatamotors crossing 322 at retracement level of 315 with stoploss at 304 for targets 335, 360.

Nifty outlook 19-may-2009

What a move by bulls. Historical day with the first ever upper circuit. ahem, well circuits :-)

With the huge upmove, nifty has moved into a new channel. I have tried to analyze nifty

movement using fibonacci confluence zones. The first zone comes in at 4330 which is near

today's closing figure. The next zone comes in at 4770. Detailed chart follows.

Once again i am not stating levels for nifty future as they simply wont be honoured.

Nifty Outlook 18-may-2009

A virtual clean sweep by UPA. Extremely positive news for the market and nothing less than a circuit should satisfy the thirst of bulls.


What to expect on monday?

I will refrain from posting my bull levels and bear levels for monday as they will not be of any use. Instead i go back to my favourite channel analysis.

I had writen on 5th of may (Channelling nifty) that next channel resistance is at 3775. On monday, expect market to comfortably surpass this level and the next channel resistance comes in at near 4000 level on nifty (see chart below).

Coincidentally, according my mathematics, circuit breaker level for nifty comes in at 3974.6 nifty spot level (readers should confirm the same with their broker and please do drop in a comment if this level is wrong so that it will benefit everyone).
Hence this level should be used to book longs of the straddle, longs one might have entered into. Well atleast partially.

Those who do not have positions can use this level to build up positional short.

Thinking about the unlikely scenario of market not moving up violently, expect violent selling to set in.

Nifty Outlook 15-May-2009

Bull Level




Buy nifty future on break of 3655 with stoploss at 3625 for targets 3690, 3700, 3725





Bear Level




Short nifty future breaking 3568 with stoploss at 3593 for targets 3535, 3515, 3495





ABAN at resistance level










If ABAN is unable to trade above strong resistance level of 528 tomorrow, it will come under heavy attack from bears. In such a scenario, intraday traders can short with opening highs as stoploss for targets 508, 495, 482. Positional traders can maintain a closing stoploss of 528 for a target of 462.

Nifty Outlook 14-may-2009

Flashback
Election fever on the bourses with promise of more to come.

Bull Level

In the scenario of nifty crossing 3680 buy at retracement level of 3670 with 3660 as stoploss for targets 3705, 3725, 3755

Bear Level
Short nifty at retracement level of 3670 with stoploss at 3680 for targets 3640, 3610, 3575

No stock picks today also because of high volatility.

Nifty Outlook 13-May-2009

FlashBack

Nifty triggered stoploss of short and gave back the 45 points and more on upside. HDFC Bank moved up all the way attaining both targets.


Bull Level

Buy nifty at retracement level of 3670 with stoploss at 3645 for targets 3715, 3750, 3775

Bear Level

1) Short nifty at 3785 with stoploss at 3815 for targets 3750, 3715, 3680

2) In the scenario of nifty future breaking 3645, short with stoploss of 3672 for targets 3610, 3585, 3555

Nifty Outlook 12-May-2009

Flashback

Readers of blog would have had a field day as nifty opened at short level and fell all the way to extended 4th target (normally i give only 3 targets, but as it turned out today was special).

Readers would have made good money in ONGC as it fell to the second target of short.

For tuesday trading

Bear Level

Short nifty at retracement level of 3590 with stoploss at 3630 for targets 3531, 3500, 3485

Bull Level

Buy nifty at 3rd target of 3485 with stoploss at 3452 for targets 3531, 3560, 3590

HDFC Bank at strong support level

For tuesday trading buy hdfc bank at 1133 with stoploss at 1114 for targets 1165, 1193

Nifty Outlook 11-May-2009

Flashback

Nifty made a sojourn from first target of long to second target short of short, taking intraday traders on a jaunt.

Readers of the blog would have printed out the almighty dollar in relcapital See what i wrote about capital here

ACC was decimated on the break of 638 as writen on 5th of may

For Monday trading

Bear Level

Short nifty future at retracement level of 3660 with stoploss at 3690 for targets 3610, 3587, 3550, 3520

Bull Level

In the scenario of nifty future crossing 3690 buy nifty future at retracement level of 3665 with 3650 as stoploss for targets 3695, 3715, 3740.

Trouble series continues - ONGC

ONGC is getting resited at a key resitance level.

For monday, short ONGC at retracement level of 910 with stoploss at 925 for targets 890, 875, 865

Unusual trading ranges in Hindustan Zinc

Hindustan Zinc is creating wide trading ranges. In the case of HINDZINC crossing 634 in futures, buy on retracement to 625 with stoploss at 595 for target 710. This is a positional trade and should be done in spot instead of future.

Has Bull Market Started? - Weekend Read

Question on the mind of everyone assoicated with the stock market.
The answer is an emphatic NO . Perhaps no one can better explain the long term internals than Mr C T Rameshraja who runs the webportal http://www.greatcalls.in/. He has writen a thought provoking article on the rally of 2009. The article can be accessed here (Note: You might need registration on the site to view the content).

Those who do not know Mr. RameshRaja, he is one of the very few analysts who successfully called the bottom as well as top of brevious bull maket. I have had the pleasure of knowing him for the past 7 years.

Nifty Outlook 08-MAY-2009

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at retracement level of 3654 with stoploss at 3632 for targets 3680, 3710, 3735.

Bear Level

In the scenario of nifty future breaking 3632, sell with stoplos of 3654 for targets 3605, 3585, 3560

Reliance Capital in trouble

For friday trading short reliance capital at 605 with stoploss at 615 for targets 586, 571, 565.

Nifty Outlook 07-May-2009

Bear Level

Short nifty future at retracement level of 3690 with 3729 as stoploss for targets 3570, 3530, 3485, 3435

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at 3430 with stoploss at 3395 for targets 3485, 3530, 3570

King of real estate in trouble

DLF has made a negative candle stick pattern at a high resitance area.

For thursday, short dlf at retracement level 250 with stoploss at 266 for targets 235, 220,205.

Nifty outlook 06-may-2009

FlashBack


Readers of the blog would have made good money in both nifty(triggered buy level and zoomed to target 2 of long) as well as acc (which was, well on a one way track).


For Wednesday Trading




Bear Level




Once nifty future breaks 3623, short at retracement level of 3640 with stoploss at 3662 for targets 3595, 3575, 3560, 3530.



Bull Level


Once nifty future crosses 3712, buy at retracement level of 3695 with stoploss of 3681 for targets 3735, 3755, 3765.



King of Banks in trouble





SBIN has made a negative candlestick pattern at a high resistance area.
For wednesday short sbi at 1360 with stoploss at 1389 for targets, 1331, 1311, 1295.

Market Outlook 05-May-2009

FlashBack

Humongous - No other term can be used to described today's gapup.

Price - Only thing one needs for analysis


On 6th of april i had writen, nifty might have defined a new range. See this .


Now we are almost at the other end of the spectrum in that chart. 3775 is the value of upper horizontal line.














For tuesday trading

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at retracement level of 3635 with 3615 as stoploss for targets 3660, 3675, 3695

Bear Level

Short nifty future at 3705 with stoploss at 3725 for targets 3675, 3655, 3645

ACC in trouble

In case of a gapup, if ACC fails to cross todays high of 682 in futures, it will fall prey to the starving bears.
On break of 638, fall to 582 shall be inevitable and rapid. Entry should be made after assessing the market conditions and with opening highs as stoploss.

Jerry Technicals: Nifty Outlook 04-MAY-2009

Jerry Technicals: Nifty Outlook 04-MAY-2009

Nifty Outlook 04-MAY-2009

Flashback

Nifty trigerred long level, zoomed to achieve targets. In a week truncated by two holidays we had brilliant movement in nifty. As they say in spain, El dorado for Day traders .

For monday trading

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at 3450 with stoploss at 3410 for targets 3495, 3520, 3545, 3575


Bear Level

1) Short nifty future at 3575 with 3601 as stoploss for targets 3520, 3495, 3450, 3425.

2) In the scenario of nifty future breaking 3410, short nifty at retracement level of 3430 with stoploss at 3455 for targets 3375, 3345, 3315.


Jewel of ADAG may retest resistance

On monday short relinfra at 730 with stoploss at 754 for targets 695, 680, 665.