Happy Holidays

A fantastic year gone by


Jerrytechnicals wishes all readers a merry Christmas and


a very very happy and prosperous 2011.

We will be back with our regular posts on Sunday 2 January 2011.

Nifty Trading Plan 23-December-2010

NIFTY TRADING PLAN


Market Balance point: 5995


Resistance : 6015


Break out: 6031


Targets: 6045, 6060, 6085




Support: 5970


Break down: 5958


Targets: 5940, 5935, 5910




NEXT: BULLS ON THE MOVE


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 21-December-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK




Market Balance Point: 5951


Resistance: 5995


Breakout: 6025


Breakout targets: 6045, 6075, 6100




Support: 5920


Breakdown: 5900


Breakdown targets: 5875, 5850, 5825




Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss




NEXT: Nifty weekly outlook

Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY OUTLOOK


              Last week nifty traded as per our expectations.
For the coming week, the market balance point is placed at 5940.

Resistance is placed at 5982. 


Above 5990 nifty future will move to 6030, 6055, 6080.


Support for nifty future is placed at 5890.


Below  5875, nifty will move down to 5840, 5790 and 5750.




NEXT : Crash & Burn






Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Market holiday today

TRADING HOLIDAY


             Readers of this blog would have minted the almighty dollar as nifty moved from balance point to 3rd target of long. A whopping 100+ points move.


Those who missed the article can access it here.


Meanwhile it is a holiday today for the Indian stock markets.


Access list of holidays here

Nifty Trading Plan 16-December-2010

Nifty future outlook

        Nifty future traded in a narrow range as predicted in this column.

Market balance point : 5875

Support : 5850

Break down: 5832

Break down targets: 5814, 5795, 5775

Resistance: 5901

Breakout: 5921

Break out targets: 5940, 5960, 5975

NEXT: Range bound again

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 15-December-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


 Market balance point: 5940


 Resistance: 5965, 5985


 Breakout:  6007


 Breakout targets: 6020, 6050, 6075


Support: 5910


Break Down: 5895


Breakdown target: 5880, 5865, 5840




NEXT: Range bound day



Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 14-December-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


 

Market Balance Point : 5917

Support : 5875

Breakdown: 5855

Break down targets : 5795, 5750, 5700.

Resistance: 5960

 Breakout: 5975

Break out targets: 6017, 6035, 6050.


NEXT: Nifty weekly outlook 


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss
 

Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK


 Nifty future traded exactly as written in this column last week.


Readers who missed the article can access it here.


What is in store for traders next week? Let us examine with the help of charts.

Nifty future balance point is placed at 5890.


Nifty will get resisted at 5940 - 5960 next week.


5990 is the break out point for next week.


Break out targets are 6070, 6150, 6230.


5845 is the support for nifty next week.


5805 is the second  support for nifty future for next week.


Trade below 5800 will take nifty future to 5725, 5675 and 5630.




NEXT: when bulls ruled the roost


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 10-December-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


             
Readers would have minted the almighty dollar in nifty short trade as written in this 


column yesterday.




Today's key levels:




Market Balance Point : 5760


Support: 5725, 5695.


Crash level: 5671


crash targets : 5630, 5585, 5555




Resistance: 5812, 5835


Rocket level :  5860


Rocket targets: 5910, 5950, 6000.








NEXT: A beautiful short


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 09-December-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


           Readers who went short in nifty as written in this column yesterday would have
minted the almighty dollar.




Nifty Market Balance Point : 5929


Nifty resistance: 5971


Nifty breakout: 5986


Nifty breakout targets : 6006, 6020, 6045.


Nifty support : 5888


Nifty break down: 5870


Nifty break down targets : 5845, 5820, 5800




NEXT: A beautiful short

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 08-December-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


            Readers who followed this column yesterday would have minted the almighty dollar.


Market balance point for nifty future is placed at 5975 today.


Support will come in at 5952.


Break and trade below 5937 will take nifty to 5920, 5900 and 5880.




Resistance is at 5985.


Break and trade above 6009 will take nifty to 6023, 6038 and 6060.




NEXT: Gold outlook


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Gold Weekly Outlook

COMEX GOLD

          



After the job data was announced, last week Gold crossed the $1400 mark for the first time after 


November.

In the above chart readers can also see a failed H&S pattern.


Market balance point for gold is placed at 1400 for this week.


Resistances are placed at 1423, 1451 and 1472.


Supports are placed at 1398, 1380, 1367.




RSI is not in overbought stage. MACD has made a positive crossover above zero.


Chart indicates that gold will move higher to meet the resistances as stated above.


For Gold outlook to turn negative it must close below 1367, in which case it will 


crash to 1340, 1315 and 1300 levels.


NEXT: NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 07-December-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


              Nifty future exactly reversed from the area of resistance to fall to balance point as 


written in this column yesterday. 


For today's trading the market balance point is placed at 6008.


Resistance is at 6050. 


Trading above 6065,  nifty future will move to 6085, 6100 , 6125.


Support exists at 5965.


Break and trade below 5950  will take down to 5935, 5915, 5895.




NEXT: NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK



Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY OUTLOOK


The market balance point for nifty future is placed at 5980 this week.

5940 is support area for nifty future. 


The second weekly support is at 5910 area.


Break below 5880 can induce correction and nifty will move to 5815 and 5775.




On the other hand nifty will face resistance at 6021.


Other overhead resistances are placed at 6075 and 6115. 


Break out level for the week is 6145.


Targets for the breakout are 6220 and 6270.




NEXT: MONEY TREE

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 03-December-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


              The market balance point for nifty future is placed at 6025 today.


Trading above 6025, nifty future will move to 6058 and 6070.


Trading above 6073 will take nifty future to 6130, 6145 and 6165.




Support for nifty future is placed at 5978.


Break below 5963 will take nifty down to 5945, 5925 and 5900 levels.




NEXT: Gap up and away




Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 02-Dec-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


           Market balance point for nifty future is placed at 5970 for tomorrow.


Supports for nifty are placed at 5945 and 5915.


Break and trade below 5910 will take nifty to 5885, 5850 and 5830.




Resistance for nifty future is placed at 6005 and 6020.


Trading above 6035 will take nifty future to 6065, 6095 and 6120.




NEXT: NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading plan 30-November-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


               Nifty future market balance point is at 5841 for today's trading.


Support for nifty future is at 5810-5805.


Break below 5790 will induce correction and nifty will move down to 5755,  5725.


5870-5880 will be the resistance level for nifty future today.


Trading above 5891 nifty future will move to 5910, 5930 and 5950.






NEXT: NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK



Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY OUTLOOK


                 Readers who traded as per last week's outlook would have made close to 30,000 rupees
in just two lots trade of nifty.  Those who missed the article can access it here.


The market crashed in a wave of scams and poor results. 


Let us see what is in store for traders this week.

Nifty Spot

The market balance point for nifty future is placed at 5825.


Nifty will get resisted at 5895 and 5940.


For nifty to reverse the current trend, nifty future needs to trade above 5980.


Doing so nifty will zoom past last week's high an move to 6050 and 6125.


On the downside, nifty future will get support at 5750 and 5710.


Break and trade below 5670 will mean trouble and nifty could correct to 5595 and 5525.


The week ahead promises to be one packed with action. Join us on weekdays where 


we will track every little move of nifty.


Trade Rich !!!!




NEXT: Yet another short trade in the name of scam


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Bribery Scam hits the Market - How will nifty react

Banking, Reality and Finance stocks hammered as bribery scam hits the market

 

Bribery scam rocked Indian stock market in latter part of trading yesterday.

Nifty tanked to 5835 as traders queued up to sell LIC, Central Bank, Punjab National Bank ,Bank of India , DB Reality & Money matters.

Finance ministry is quick to update that it is not a scam, but a bribery case.

Readers can get the full coverage of this story on business line 

Let us see how to trade nifty today.

5877 is the market balance point for today.

Resistance for nifty is at 5915 and 5935.

Break out level is 5955.

Trading above 5955 , nifty will move to 5995, 6030 and 6065.

Support for nifty futures is 5840 and 5820.

Break and trade below 5800 is disaster for nifty and it will move 

down to 5760, 5725 and 5690.

NEXT: WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

No update today

 Due to technical reasons, blog will not be updated today.


  NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Nifty Trading Plan 23-November-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


          Readers of the blog would have minted the almighty dollar as nifty moved from


5925 to 6025 exactly as written in this column yesterday. Those who missed the article can access it 


here.


Market Balance point for nifty future is placed at 6005.


Nifty future will have resistance at 6030 and 6050. Trading above 6065 will take nifty future to 


6095, 6125 and 6140.


Nifty future support is placed at 5975, 5959. 


Break below 5940 will induce correction and nifty will move down to 


5910, 5875, 5855.




NEXT: NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY OUTLOOK


           Expiry week is here. Readers who went through our weekly article last week 


would have had no problem in navigating the twists and turns of the market. 


For this week, market balance point is placed at 5925.

Nifty chart

Resistance of nifty is placed at 5990 and 6030.

For nifty to trade in positive zone it must cross 6068.

In such a case nifty will move to 6140, 6210, 6250.

Support for nifty future is placed at 5850 & 5810.

Break below 5775, will take nifty to 5700 and 5630.

NEXT: chart predicts doom

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 19-November-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


   Readers of the blog  would have minted the almighty dollar in nifty future


in yesterday's trade as nifty reversed from resistance to support and from support 


to resistance. Those who were unlucky to miss out yesterday's article can access the 


same here.


Readers who entered weekly short in RELINFRA would be richer by Rs 20,000 on a 
single lot of trade as the stock crashed to 971. 


Those who missed the article can access it here.


For today's trading market balance point is placed at 6020.


5983 is strong support level for nifty future today.


Reversal from 5983 will take nifty to 6055, 6075 and 6105.








Break below 5955 will indicate that yesterday's upmove was a flash in the pan 


and nifty will nose dive to 5915. 5900-5895 remains the last line of support for nifty 


below which expect nifty to fall to 5845 and 5825 in no time.

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

NEXT: Money Tree

Nifty Trading Plan 18-November-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


          The market balance point for nifty future is placed at 5985 tomorrow.


If nifty takes support at this level and reverses, it will move to 6020, 6045.


Break out will be above 6066 and targets for the BO are 6105 and 6145.


Trade below 5960 will take nifty to 5945 and 5920.


Last line of support is 5900.


If this support doesn't hold nifty will move down to 5865 and 5825 in no time.




NEXT: Yet another holiday

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Market Holiday today

Indian stock markets have a holiday today.


Access the list of all holidays for 2010 here.




NEXT: Comparison

Facts - Nifty vs International Indices & Sector performance

NIFTY vs other international indices

Source: nseindia.com

Sectoral Indices vs Nifty

Source: nseindia.com

NEXT: Nifty Outlook

Nifty Trading Plan 16-November-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK 


  Readers who short sold RELINFRA at 1055 today would have minted the almighty dollar
as the stock crashed to 1020.


Those who missed the article can access it here.


For tomorrow's trading, the market balance point for nifty future is placed at 6120.


Support for nifty is placed at 6085.


Break below 6070 will invite trouble and nifty will 6050 and 6030.


Break below 6010 is serious trouble and nifty will tank to 5960.




Resistance for nifty future is at 6160.


Break and trade above 6178 will take nifty to 6198, 6210 and 6230.




NEXT: Nifty weekly outlook

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook

Stocks for trading in the coming week




RELINFRA
            
           IF relinfra future breaks 1037 , it can retrace to 1055.


Trading idea is short at retracement and hold for targets of 1025, 1002 and 985.


1068 can be maintained as stop for this trade.




NEXT: Nifty Weekly outlook


Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook

NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY OUTLOOK


                  Nifty future reversed exactly from weekly resistance level as mentioned


in this column last week. Those who missed the article can access it here.


Readers who did the article would have made a minimum of 25,000 rupees in just lots


trading of nifty future. 

For the week ahead , Market balance point for nifty future is placed at 6131. 


Support for nifty future is at 6088 level.


Break below 6074 will mean more correction in the offing and nifty will move to 


6045 and 5980. 


Break below 5980 can mean serious trouble and index can fall to 5945 and 5910.




Resistance for nifty future is placed at 6178 and 6210.


Nifty needs to cross and trade above 6245 in order for trend change to occur.


In such a case, nifty future will move to 6320, 6380 and 6420.


Join us next week where we will track day by day movement of nifty and generate 


trading ideas.




NEXT: Money Tree

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Nifty Trading Plan 12-November-2010

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK


                   Readers of the blog would have minted the almighty dollar 


as nifty future reversed exactly from the level given and crashed to achieve


both targets given. Those who missed out the article can access  it here.




Market Balance point for today's trading is placed at 6215.


6188 and 6172 are strong supports for nifty today.




Break below 6155 will induce trouble, and nifty could move down to 6130, 6105.




On the upper side, 6245-6255 will offer strong resistance. 


Break above 6275 will bring back positiveness and nifty will move to 


6300 and 6325.




NEXT: POWER GRID FOLLOW ON PUBLIC OFFER

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Power Grid FPO - A closer look

POWERGRID (532898) FPO - Structural Analysis


          To partly meet its capital expenditure plans, Power Grid has come out with a follow-on public offer (FPO) at a price band of Rs 85-90 per share. 


The offer, will help raise Rs 7,575 crore based on the upper price band, and includes an offer for sale worth Rs 3,787 crore by the government.


The issue opened on 9th Nov and lasts till 12th Nov.


The price band is set at 85-90 rs. Retail Investors will get a 5% discount on the issue price.


How good is it ? - The fundamentals


                Power Grid is a giant company in the field of power transmission in india.


It is so big that it is even the 3rd largest power transmission utility company in the whole world.


Powergrid currently trades at 3 times book value and 17 times PE.


Power grid is expected to report 20 percent growth in revenue in the next 3 years. 


This means that the Book Value of the stock could move up to 53 - 56 level in next 3 years.




How good is it ? - The technicals

MACD is below zero line and moving up. RSI is neither overbought nor oversold. 


95 is srong support for the stock. Weekly close below this will take the stock down to 80 levels.


On the upper end 110 - 115 is huge resistance. The stock needs a weekly close above 120 for decent run upwards.






Conclusion


The Qualified institution part of the issue is already subscribed 2 times. 


So can we expect another coal india ? 


Well it depends on the kind of returns one is expecting.


If a retail investor applies for 1000 shares at cutoff price of 90 rs which is the higher end of spectrum,


he will probably get 700 shares allocated. 


Considering th 5% discount, the retail investor will be issued stocks at 85.50 rs per share. 


So one can safely expect a listing gain of 5 - 15%. 


At the higher end of spectrum of price movement, if the stock moves to 110, the investor 


can pocket a gain of 28.6%.


However, one must note that this an FPO unlike Coal India (IPO). Stock has been around for some time.


It is very low beta stock and so taking the gains out, might take time. 




A very good fundamental stock with very low beta -- not good for traders, good for long term investors is our conclusion.






NEXT: Nifty Outlook

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss