Nifty Outlook 01-July-2009

Flashback

Readers who went short near bear level would have printed out the almighty dollar as nifty crashed to achieve all targets on the downside.

Although ACC crashed to the targets given, readers may not have been able to take advantage of it as it came nowhere near short level of 810.

Bull Level

Nifty is near key fibonacci support level of 4235 .

In case of gap down buy nifty at 4228 with stoploss at 4190 for targets 4301, 4330, 4360

Bear Level

In case of flat opening short nifty future around 4360 with stoploss at 4385 for targets 4301, 4270, 4230.

ABAN - Will the support , support ABAN

ABAN has strong support at 850 and tomorrow this support might get tested in a gap down scenario.

For wednesday trading, buy ABAN at 850 with 833 as stoploss for targets 874, 900, 930.

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss.

Monthly Profit Tracker

Readers,

I started my profit tracker on first of June and today is 30th of June.

I am really proud and happy to announce that the blog recommendations have made a whopping

Rs. 300512

profit in intraday trading. All the profit with one contract of stock future and two nifty contracts.

So, go ahead and grab a bottle of Shipwrecked 1907 Heidsieck and celebrate this moment with me. Thank you for all the support and all the comments.

Nifty Outlook 30-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who went short in nifty at opening near the shortlevel would have booked closed to 50 points profits before nifty reversed direction.

Bear Level

Short nifty future around 4425 with stoploss at 4455 for targets 4375, 4340, 4300

Bull Level

In the scenario of nifty future crossing 4455 buy at retracement level of 4425 with stoploss at 4390 for targets 4465, 4485, 4505

Feed the bears -ACC

ACC has made reversal from a high resistance zone.

For tuesday trading, short ACC around 810 with stoploss at 823 for targets 790, 771, 755.

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss.

Nifty outlook 29-June-2009

Bull Level

Buy nifty future around retracement level of 4305 with stoploss at 4280 for targets 4345, 4380, 4400.

Bear Level

Short nifty future around 4400 with stoploss at 4425 for targets 4360, 4330, 4300.

There are no stock recommendations for tomorrow.

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss.

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Weekly Outlook 29th June - 03 July 2009

Nifty

Nifty has closed in a high resistance zone. 4445 is the first resistance of nifty for the coming week and second resistance is placed quite close at 4490.

On the support side, 4290 and 4250 should offer good supports below which nifty can fall to this weeks low of 4155.

Sultance of Stocks - Reliance

As i had writen last week, RIL came under huge bear attack.

For this week resistances for RIL are placed at 2065 and 2100 while strong support exists at 1955 below which RIL can test long term support of 1875.

King of Banks - SBIN

As i had writen last week, SBIN went into a small trading range.

This week SBIN will have resistances at 1785 and 1820 while supports exist and 1710, 1655.

New Kid on the Block - L&T

Due to new float rule, L&T takes the spot of ONGC in my weekly analysis. Hope readers will appreciate this change.

L&T will have huge resistance at 1640 and 1670. Inability to trade above first resistance level will mean L&T getting a bear attack to support levels of

1600, 1570 and 1540

Profit Tracker for week 22-June-2009 to 26-June-2009

jeAssumptions:

1) All figures are based on 1 contract of stock and 2 contracts of nifty

2) Weekly levels given are not considered.

Profit Trackers for rest of June

Nifty Outlook 26-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who went short at bear level of 4345 would have booked huge profits at 4255, the third target of short. Even readers who tried adventurous long at 4250, the bull level, would have had oppurtunity to book 20 rs profit as nifty zoomed to 4270.

Bear Level

Short nifty future around 4290 with stoploss at 4320 for targets 4240, 4210, 4180, 4160

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at 4150 with stoploss at 4125 for targets 4180, 4210, 4240.

Sultan of Stocks - Can the Sultan stay afloat as we move to floating stock nifty

Sultan of stocks is unable to sustain above key levels and upmoves are getting resisted.

For friday trading short RIL around 1990 with stoploss at 2015 for targets 1955, 1935, 1900.

Do checkout my post about free float system here

Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss.

Nifty - Free float and implications for traders

What is this free float ?

It simply means from tomorrow, the weightage of any scrip in nifty index will be proportional tothe public shareholding in the scrip. Currently weightage is proportional to public + promoter shareholding.

What does this mean to you and me as traders?

It means that there will be slight change in the scripts that we use to track nifty.

Highest weightage will remain with the Sultan, Reliance ( good news for RIL stock fans).

INFOSYS,L&T, ICICIBANK and HDFC will have more weightage.

ONGC will lose its position as index biggie.

What is the effect of this change on NIFTY ?

There will be no change in the index value because of change in weightage system. Based on today's closing prices, the division will be adjusted accordingly

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Nifty Outlook 25-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who went long near the long level would have printed out the almighty dollar as nifty nearly achieved 3rd target on upside.

Bull Level

Buy nifty future around 4250 with stoploss at 4230 for targets 4290, 4320, 4340

Bear Level

Short nifty future around 4345 with stoploss at 4370 for targets 4310, 4280, 4255

As usual no stock recommendations on expiry day

Disclaimer


This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog.

Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall alone be responsible for profit/loss.

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Nifty Outlook 24-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who went long near the long level would have printed out the almighty dollar as nifty achieved all 3 targets given.

Readers could not have made use of DLF as the stock opened way down from the short level.

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at 4203 with stoploss at 4180 for targets 4245, 4290, 4325

Bear Level

Short nifty around 4340 with stoploss at 4365 for targets 4315, 4290, 4245

As we are nearing expiry, there are no stock recommendations for tomorrow.

Disclaimer


This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog.

Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall alone be responsible for profit/loss.

Nifty Outlook 23-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who went long at long level would have booked a loss as nifty was on a one way track which went only downwards. Readers who went long in reliance capital would have had the oppurtunity to book 20 rs profit as the stock gave up all gains after that

Bull Level

In case of gap down buy nifty future at 4140 with stoploss at 4118 for targets 4190, 4220, 4240

Bear Level

In case of flat or gap up opening, short nifty future at 4290 with stoploss at 4310 for targets 4240, 4190, 4160.

DLF - Feed the Bears

DLF has made a reversal pattern at a key resistance area

Tomorrow short DLF at retracement level 331 with stoploss at 342 for targets 309, 290, 275.

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Nifty Outlook 22-June-2009

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at retracement level of 4285 with stoploss at 4251 for targets 4335, 4370, 4415.

Weekly outlook 22 June - 26 June 2009

NIFTY

This week nifty will run into huge resistances at 4430 and 4520. Reversal from either of the levels will make nifty weak.

Supports for this week are placed at friday low of 4201 and 4000.

Sultan of stocks - Reliance

Last week RIL came under the attack of bears as i had writen in previous weekly outlook.

This week RIL will have tremendous resistances at 2150 and 2200. Inability to trade above first resistance level will mean, RIL getting slaughtered to 1975 and 1870.

King of Banks - SBIN

SBI was the most sought after stock by bulls to daytrade last week as it moved moved from second support level to second resistance level.

This week resistances are placed at 1750 and 1830 while supports are placed at 1700 and 1630 for sbi. As a result, SBI may go into sideways trend this week.

Oil Barron - ONGC

ONGC broke down from its trading range last week. Resistances for ONGC this week are placed at 1065 and 1090. If in the course of this week, ONGC fails to close above second resitance bears will attack ONGC to 950 and 890.

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Profit Tracker for week of June 15 to June 19 2009

We had yet another money factory week at the stock market. Following are the details of trades done this week.

Profit Tracker 1st Week of June

Profit Tracker 2nd Week of June

Nifty Outlook 19-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who went long at the bull level would have made 75 points in the long trade.

Nifty is approching a key support zone of 4180.

Bull Level

Buy nifty at 4185 with stoploss at 4150 for targets 4250, 4290, 4320, 4350..

Bear Level

Short nifty at 4350 with stoploss at 4365 for targets 4320, 4290,4250, 4185

Again there are no stock recommendations for tomorrow

Nifty outlook 18-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who followed the nifty long level today would have booked a small loss while aban gapped and achieved targets which the reader could not have taken advantage of.

A note on nifty

Nifty has triggered positional short, the target of short being 4070.

Bull Level

In case of gap down buy nifty future at 4305 with stoploss at 4285 for targets 4340, 4370, 4420

Bear Level

Short nifty future around 4430 with stoploss at 4455 with targets 4370, 4325, 4275

There are no stock recommendations for tomorrow.

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Nifty Outlook 17-June-2009

Bull Level

Buy nifty at retracement level of 4490 with stoploss at 4470 for targets 4520, 4545, 4575, 4590

Bear Level

In case of gap up short nifty future at 4595 with stoploss at 4625 for targets 4570, 4545, 4520.

ABAN

For wednesday trading, buy ABAN on retracement to 985 with stoploss at 960 for targets 1015, 1045, 1075

.

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Nifty Outlook 16-June-2009

Flashback

Nifty from near short entry level fell all the way to 4th target .

Nifty from near long level achieved the first target of long.

HDIL crashed from short level to third target.

In short, readers would have enjoyed making money with the levels given yesterday.

Bear Level

Short nifty at retracement level of 4555 with 4580 as stoploss for targets 4510, 4480, 4450, 4415.

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at 4400 with stoploss at 4375 for targets 4450, 4480, 4510, 4545

There are no stock recommendations for tomorrow

Nifty Outlook 15-June-2009

Bear Level

Short nifty future at retracement level of 4625 with stoploss at 4650 for targets 4570, 4540, 4520, 4485

Bull Level

Buy Nifty at 4475 with stoploss at 4465 for targets 4520, 4540, 4570, 4620.

Bear Pleasure - HDIL

For monday trading short HDIL at 266 with stoploss at 270 for targets 256, 248, 244.

Positional traders can hold the short with same stoploss for targets 235 and 215 (In case the trade goes well, i shall update stoploss everyday).

"Mathematics is the only exact science. All power under heaven and on earth is given to the man who masters the simple science of mathematics" - W D Gann

Weekly outlook June 15 - June 19

NIFTY

Nifty has made a long legged doji on weekly charts.

For next week nifty resitances are placed at 4670 and 4750 while supports are placed at 4475 and 4365.

Sultan of Stocks - Reliance Industries

Reliance has closed in a high resitance zone this week.

Unable to trade above weekly resistance level of 2395, bears will attack RIL and take it down to 2155 and 2090

King of Banks - SBI

If SBI .is unable to trade above 1695 next week, expect SBI to drift down to support level of 1540 and 1500

Oil Barron - ONGC

Weekly resistance for ONGC are placed at 1150 and 1200 while weekly supports are placed at 1060 and 1025.

Profit Tracker Week 08 June 2009 - 12 June 2009

Nifty Outlook 12-June-2009

Flashback

1) Readers who went long at nifty buy level would have got 75 points on upside.

2) Readers who went long in Renuka at 141 (which tantalizingly came to 139.15 which was near stop-loss level) would have booked 10 points

as the stock zoomed to 153.

3) Readers who went long in HDIL would have had the opportunity to book 15 points as the stock zoomed to 281

4) Readers who went long in Bharti Airtel would have the opportunity to book 40 points.

Bull Level

In the scenario of nifty future crossing 4703 buy at retracement to 4685 with stop-loss at 4655 for targets 4715, 4740, 4760, 4800.

Bear Level

In the scenario of nifty future breaking 4580, short at retracement to 4610 with stop-loss at 4637 for targets 4560, 4540, 4530, 4485.

ABAN - Getting support at support

Today ABAN got support at the critical level of 960 and moved up from there. We can expect the momentum to continue tomorrow.

For friday trading, in the scenario of aban crossing 1092, buy on retracement to 1075 with stop-loss at 1040 for targets 1130, 1170, 1210, 1250

Nifty Outlook 11-June-2009

Bull Level

1) Buy nifty future at retracement level of 4605 with stoploss at 4576 for targets 4645, 4680, 4715.

2) In the scenario of nifty future crossing 4741 buy nifty future on retracement to 4701 with 4675 as stoploss for targets 4750, 4775, 4805

Bear Level

1) Short nifty future at resistance level of 4720 with 4741 as stoploss for targets 4690, 4660, 4620

2) Nifty future, breaking 4576 short at retracement level of 4630 with stoploss at 4667 for targets 4560, 4520, 4485.

Looking Good - Renuka

For thursday trading buy renuka on retracement to 141 with stoploss at 139 for targets 146, 150, 155

Nifty Outlook 10-June-2009

Flashback

Nifty opened at weekly support level and moved up in a straight line.

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at retracement level of 4468 with stoploss at 4443 for targets 4502, 4560, 4610, 4650.

Bear Level

In case of gap up open, short nifty future at 4620 with stoploss at 4652 for targets 4560, 4530, 4502, 4485

HDIL - One Last Dance

Today HDIL took support at key support level. One can expect some follow up tomorrow.

For tomorrow trading,

buy HDIL on retracement to 265 with stoploss at 254 for targets 287, 302, 320

Nifty Outlook 09-June-2009

Flashback

You saw it here http://jerrytechnicals.blogspot.com/2009/05/weekend-analysis-of-nifty-and-index.html.

"The week ahead should be really interesting because there is a fibonacci time cluster confluence happening on june 4 - june 8.

As traders, we should expect change of trend in this time period."

As expected nifty made a U turn on the fibonacci confluence date of June 8.

Readers of the blog would have made a fortune shorting mcdowell which fell from short level to 3rd target.

Bear Level

Short nifty at retracment level of 4503 with 4540 as stoploss for targets 4460, 4400, 4330, 4300.

Bull Level

Buy nifty around 4300 with stoploss at 4260 for targets 4380, 4420, 4450.

As i expect violent and volatile moves tomorrow, there are no stock recommendations. Let us just enjoy the profit made in mcdowell :-)

Nifty Outlook 08-June-2009

Bull Level

In the scenario of nifty future crossing 4650 buy at retracement to 4630 with 4610 as stoploss for targets 4675, 4700, 4740.

Bear Level

In the scenario of nifty future breaking 4525, short at retracment level of 4540 with stoploss at 4560 for targets 4505, 4485, 4470.

For the entertainment of Bears

Mcdowell is not able to sustain above 1000. If market turns weak tomorrow, it will come under heavy attack from bears.

For monday trading, short mcdowell at retracment level of 955 with stoploss at 975 for targets 925, 900, 885

For the eyes of bulls only

Bharti Airtel put in a subdued performance last week. This week , if nifty sustains its upmove, expect airtel to outperform.

Weekly Market Oulook

NIFTY

This week nifty will run into huge resistances at 4645, 4695, 4790. Unable to trade above first level will take nifty down to support levels of 4535 and 4485, 4400.

RELIANCE - SULTAN OF STOCKS

Reliance looks all set to fall to support levels of 2175 and 2110 this week. Reliance will have huge resistances at 2270, 2310.

SBIN-KING OF BANKS

SBIN has huge resitances at 1830 and 1875 for this week. Inability to trade above first resitance level will drag SBI down to 1740 and 1700.

ONGC-OIL BARRON

If ONGC is unable to trade above this weeks high of 1215, ONGC will come under bear pressure. Supports exist at 1155 and 1115.

Profit Tracker for Week June 01 - June 05

Date	Script	Trade	Buy	Sell	Quantity	Profit
1/6/2009	APIL	Long	466	488	1200	26400
1/6/2009	NIFTY	Long	4535	4515	100	-2000
2/6/2009	RELCAPITAL	Long	952	970	552	9936
2/6/2009	NIFTY	Long	4514	4485	100	-2900
3/6/2009	NIFTY	Long	4535	4575	100	4000
3/6/2009	SBI	Long	1850	1874	264	6336
4/6/2009	No Trade recommended
5/6/2009	NIFTY	Long	4561	4640	100	7900
5/6/2009	NIFTY	Short	4580	4640	100	6000
					Total	55672

I made a small worksheet based on the blog recommendations.

Here are the results for the 1st week of June.

Assumption is that reader would have traded minimum of one contact of stock future and 2 contracts of nifty future per trade.

I have not considered readers trading weekly levels given in weekly analysis

Nifty Outlook 05-June-2009

Bull Level

In case of flat opening buy nifty on retracement to 4553 with stoploss at 4523 for targets 4590, 4620, 4650

Bear Level

In case of gap up opening short nifty at 4650 with stoploss at 4680 for targets 4610, 4582, 4553.

In the scenario of nifty future breaking 4523 short at retracement to 4540 with stoploss at 4560 for targets 4485, 4435, 4405.

Several stocks have made bullish breakouts today. However, because nifty and sensex are at key resistance levels coupled with fact that we are in a fibonacci trend reversal time period, no stock recommendation is provided for friday.

Nifty Outlook 04-June-2009

Flashback
Huge volatility. The day can only be best described in those words.
Readers who bought nifty near long level would have made close to 40 points in long and those who shorted at short level would have made a paltry 20 points. Not an impressive performance there. Readers who bought SBI at 1850 would have made close to 25 rupees. However those who held on to SBI would have made a loss.

Tomorrow is marked by two key things

1) Fibonacci time cluster number 1 (See my weekend post on fibonacci time cluster here)

2) President's address

Market will be quite tricky to trade. Therefore i resist from giving bull level and bear level for tomorrow. There are no stock recommendations too. However for the benefit of readers who might be having overnight positions i am posting key support and resistance levels for
nifty. Readers can use these levels to book profit in their positions as the news unfolds. These levels can also be used for intraday trading if the trader is proficient in candlestick analysis.

Nifty support levels
4500, 4485,4450,4400,4370, 4330

Nifty Resitance Levels
4555, 4580,4610,4645,4675,4740

Nifty Outlook 03-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who went long in relcapital at 952 would have had the oppurtunity to book longs at 970 as it pulled back really strongly from long level. Nifty stoploss for long was triggered though.
SBI was the star stock today as it bounced back violently from first support level mentioned in weekend analyis . Coincidentally, today's nifty high of 4578 was close to the first resitance level 4570 mentioned in the weekly analysis.

For wednesday trading

Bull Level

In the scenario of nifty future crossing 4560, buy at retracement level of 4528 with stoploss at 4501 for targets 4590, 4615, 4640.

Bear Level

In the scenario of nifty future breaking 4501, short at retracement level of 4528 with stoploss at 4560 for targets 4485, 4450,4420.

Looking good : King of Banks

SBI looks extremely good on charts for tomorrow.

For tomorrow trading buy sbi at retracement level of 1850 with stoploss at 1828 for targets 1885, 1920, 1945,1975

Nifty Outlook 02-June-2009

Flashback

We had to wait from first hour of trade when APIL retraced to 466 to last hour of trade when it hit the first target of 488. At a profit of 25000 rupees+ per lot, this was the sweetest wait ever.

Nifty however triggered the stoploss levels before nosediving to targets.

Bull Level

Buy nifty future at retracement level of 4514 with stoploss at 4485 for targets 4560, 4590, 4610.

Bear Level

Short nifty future at 3rd target of 4610 with stoploss at 4630 for targets 4580, 4540, 4500.

Double Whammy - Reliance Capital

Tomorrow could be a very interesting day to trade reliance capital with oppurtunity to trade on both sides. From the chart, we can see that reliance capital will do well tomorrow. However we can also see that it will run into some huge resitances on the way up.

For tuesday trading

Buy reliance capital on retracement to 952 with stoploss at 942 for targets 980, 1005, 1025.

Short reliance capital at 1025 with stoploss at 1045 for targets 1005, 975, 955.

Bear Level