Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook

NIFTY FUTURE OULOOK


               Union Budget is just around the corner.
How will nifty react to budget?


Let us have a look at the charts.

Nifty future will have supports at 5245 and 5200 levels next week.


Break below 5160 will open up targets on the downside.


Nifty could fall to 5085, 5000 in such a scenario.




On the upside, nifty future will get resisted at 5395, 5440 and 5460.


Trade above 5480 will open up targets upto 5555 and 5620.




NEXT: Friday



Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation/ solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but Jerry's view on indian stock market. I assume no responsibility for any opinion or statement made in this blog. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Readers shall solely be responsible for profit/loss

Stock Market Today - Flashback

Flashback

As i had writen, it was a very difficult day indeed to trade.

I had writen on twitter to watchout for axis, relcapital and relinfra.

Out of these relcapital was outperformer by a long way. It just rocketed on the upside.

RELINFRA also rocked on the upside.

AXISBANK was a dud.

Yesterday night dow made a high of 10430, just i like i had writen in

http://jerrytechnicals.blogspot.com/2009/11/technical-analysis-dow-jones-djia.html

As expected, dow has met with stiff resistance in the supply zone.

Nifty - Free float and implications for traders

What is this free float ?

It simply means from tomorrow, the weightage of any scrip in nifty index will be proportional tothe public shareholding in the scrip. Currently weightage is proportional to public + promoter shareholding.

What does this mean to you and me as traders?

It means that there will be slight change in the scripts that we use to track nifty.

Highest weightage will remain with the Sultan, Reliance ( good news for RIL stock fans).

INFOSYS,L&T, ICICIBANK and HDFC will have more weightage.

ONGC will lose its position as index biggie.

What is the effect of this change on NIFTY ?

There will be no change in the index value because of change in weightage system. Based on today's closing prices, the division will be adjusted accordingly

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Nifty Outlook 23-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who went long at long level would have booked a loss as nifty was on a one way track which went only downwards. Readers who went long in reliance capital would have had the oppurtunity to book 20 rs profit as the stock gave up all gains after that

Bull Level

In case of gap down buy nifty future at 4140 with stoploss at 4118 for targets 4190, 4220, 4240

Bear Level

In case of flat or gap up opening, short nifty future at 4290 with stoploss at 4310 for targets 4240, 4190, 4160.

DLF - Feed the Bears

DLF has made a reversal pattern at a key resistance area

Tomorrow short DLF at retracement level 331 with stoploss at 342 for targets 309, 290, 275.

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Nifty outlook 18-June-2009

Flashback

Readers who followed the nifty long level today would have booked a small loss while aban gapped and achieved targets which the reader could not have taken advantage of.

A note on nifty

Nifty has triggered positional short, the target of short being 4070.

Bull Level

In case of gap down buy nifty future at 4305 with stoploss at 4285 for targets 4340, 4370, 4420

Bear Level

Short nifty future around 4430 with stoploss at 4455 with targets 4370, 4325, 4275

There are no stock recommendations for tomorrow.

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Nifty Outlook 15-June-2009

Bear Level

Short nifty future at retracement level of 4625 with stoploss at 4650 for targets 4570, 4540, 4520, 4485

Bull Level

Buy Nifty at 4475 with stoploss at 4465 for targets 4520, 4540, 4570, 4620.

Bear Pleasure - HDIL

For monday trading short HDIL at 266 with stoploss at 270 for targets 256, 248, 244.

Positional traders can hold the short with same stoploss for targets 235 and 215 (In case the trade goes well, i shall update stoploss everyday).

"Mathematics is the only exact science. All power under heaven and on earth is given to the man who masters the simple science of mathematics" - W D Gann

Weekly outlook June 15 - June 19

NIFTY

Nifty has made a long legged doji on weekly charts.

For next week nifty resitances are placed at 4670 and 4750 while supports are placed at 4475 and 4365.

Sultan of Stocks - Reliance Industries

Reliance has closed in a high resitance zone this week.

Unable to trade above weekly resistance level of 2395, bears will attack RIL and take it down to 2155 and 2090

King of Banks - SBI

If SBI .is unable to trade above 1695 next week, expect SBI to drift down to support level of 1540 and 1500

Oil Barron - ONGC

Weekly resistance for ONGC are placed at 1150 and 1200 while weekly supports are placed at 1060 and 1025.

Nifty Outlook 12-June-2009

Flashback

1) Readers who went long at nifty buy level would have got 75 points on upside.

2) Readers who went long in Renuka at 141 (which tantalizingly came to 139.15 which was near stop-loss level) would have booked 10 points

as the stock zoomed to 153.

3) Readers who went long in HDIL would have had the opportunity to book 15 points as the stock zoomed to 281

4) Readers who went long in Bharti Airtel would have the opportunity to book 40 points.

Bull Level

In the scenario of nifty future crossing 4703 buy at retracement to 4685 with stop-loss at 4655 for targets 4715, 4740, 4760, 4800.

Bear Level

In the scenario of nifty future breaking 4580, short at retracement to 4610 with stop-loss at 4637 for targets 4560, 4540, 4530, 4485.

ABAN - Getting support at support

Today ABAN got support at the critical level of 960 and moved up from there. We can expect the momentum to continue tomorrow.

For friday trading, in the scenario of aban crossing 1092, buy on retracement to 1075 with stop-loss at 1040 for targets 1130, 1170, 1210, 1250

Weekend analysis of nifty and index biggies and a fibonacci confluence

Last week had plenty for both bulls and bears.

All the index biggies traded as per levels mentioned in Jerry's weekly analysis of index biggies .

In the end bulls were clear winners with a 400 point rally in nifty from the low of 4090. The week ahead should be really interesting because there is a fibonacci time cluster confluence happening on june 4 - june 8. As traders, we should expect change of trend in this time period.


NIFTY

For the week ahead, nifty support levels are placed at 4350 and 4250 levels while resitances are placed at 4570 and 4650 repectively.

RELIANCE

Sultan of stocks closed near a high resistance zone with reistances coming at 2340 and 2390. Weekly supports for reliance exists at 2230 and 2180 levels.

SBIN

King of banks had a most volatile week with a journey from weekly close to support level and back to resistance levels. In the week ahead, SBI will have huge resistance at 1900 and 1970 levels while support levels are placed at 1780 and 1700 levels.

ONGC

In the week ahead, ONGC could be the deal breaker. ONGC will run into huge resistance at 1250, 1320 levels. Inability to sustain above first resitance level will drag the stock down to 1100 and 900 levels.